Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends October 2018

Primary School Children’s Further Career Choices 2018 - Summary


This is a brief summary of the most important findings of the career choice survey conducted in 2018 by HCIC IEER. The career choice survey examined the choices and interest of seventh grade primary school pupils with regard to their further education at secondary schools and vocation. The 2018 career choice survey was conducted by the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (HCIC). Experts of its territorial chambers surveyed 9228 seventh grade pupils.

 

Counties were represented proportionally, based on the number of their school-leaving eight graders in 2017. The sample was weighted by the schools' location in greater regions; by the schools' results at the central competency assessment of 2017; and, finally, by the number of their seventh grade pupils. Since the required data for weighting were available for 9071 students, the following findings are based on the answers of these 9071 students.

 

Results show that almost everyone (92%) has already considered further education possibilities. The majority (85%) talked with their parents about it, 70% discussed it in home room class, 34% went to a school career orientation day, and 24% relied on older friends to gain information.

 

Pupils’ education plans and their parents’ advice


Parents most often suggested (in 25% of all cases) that their children should learn a profession and acquire a secondary school certificate. A similar proportion (24%) of parents advised graduation. 22% of pupils were told to be allowed to make their own choice. 13% were advised to get a certificate of secondary education while 10% were advised to obtain a profession, respectively. 5% have not discussed the matter with the parents yet (see figure 1.)...

 

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Download this file (MBET_October_2018.pdf)MBET Oct 2018

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends September 2018

Hungarian companies as suppliers


This analysis is based on the July 2018 wave of IEER's Quarterly Business Climate Survey, in which 400 CEOs were involved. The structure of the sample is the same each quarter: it contains 300 small and medium-sized enterprises (20-249 employees) and 100 large enterprises (250+
employees). Economic output and sectors are both representative. The survey mainly concerns the business situation and short-term business expectations of enterprises. In this wave, the popularity of supplier activity was also surveyed.

 

Findings on how widespread supplier activity was in Hungary are presented in Figure 1. According to them, 16% of the surveyed 400 companies were involved in supplying to other companies in 2017. Of all the background variables examined, the only one whose correlation to supplying activity had statistically significance was exports. It may be safe to conclude that more export-oriented companies are also more liable to act as suppliers. (Only 11% of non-exporting companies act as suppliers, while mainly exporters that take over 50% of their annual revenues from exports are more than twice as liable, their proportion as suppliers being 26%.)..

 

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Download this file (MBET_September_2018.pdf)MBET Sept 2018

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends August 2018

IEER quarterly business climate survey results, July 2018


The Quarterly Business Climate Index survey of IEER reveals the opinion of 400 managers on the situation and the outlook of their businesses. The basis used for calculating the Quarterly Business Climate Index and the Quarterly Uncertainty Index is a sample of 300 small and medium-sized enterprises (20-249 employees) and 100 large enterprises (employing 250 persons or more). Surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises were evaluated by using our SME Outlook Business Climate Index and SME Outlook Uncertainty Index.

 

According to our survey conducted in July 2018, the level of business confidence in Hungary was slightly higher quarter on quarter. The Quarterly Business Climate Index was up from 39 points in April to 42 points. The index has never been this high since our business climate records began in 2010 (see figure 1). The Quarterly Uncertainty Index was at 26 points, 2 points lower than the level of the previous quarter. Uncertainty Index values suggest that the business situation has been given a more consistent evaluation by domestic companies compared to the previous quarter.

 

If business confidence levels are examined in the small and medium-sized sector only, we can see that the upward trend since July 2017 is interrupted: the SME Outlook Business Climate Index has dropped from 38 points in April to 34 points (see figure 2). The SME Outlook Uncertainty Index is at 30 points, having decreased by four point since April 2018 - this value indicates that the opinion of small and medium-sized enterprises is more unified than in the previous quarter...

 

Continnued in the Attached file below:

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Download this file (MBET_Aug_2018.pdf)MBET August 2018

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends July 2018

Corporate reactions to the raise of the minimum wage/guaranteed minimum salary of qualified staff


The analysis is based on the April 2018 wave of IEER Business Climate Survey. The IEER Business Climate Survey is the most extensive of its kind in Hungary, the one that involves the most companies. This year, our results were based on the answers of 3274 CEOs. The results offer an insight into companies' business situations and short-term expectations. Respondents were also asked about the impacts of a raised minimum wage and guaranteed minimum salary. The sample size of respondents can be considered representative with regard to company size and economic sector.

 

Our brief analysis examines eight potential measures that can be reactions to the January 20181 raise of the minimum wage/guaranteed minimum salary for qualified staff. CEOs were asked to fill in the form below.
The raise of the minimum wage to HUF 138,000 and the guaranteed minimum salary of qualified staff to HUF 180,500 have resulted/will result in the following measures at your company in 2018:

  • wages of those earning above the minimum wage are also increased to avoid wage tension
  • planned staff recruitment is cancelled
  • redundancies are made
  • projected investments are postponed
  • employees entitled for a raise are given new duties
  • employees entitled for a raise are re-hired as part-time employees
  • other benefits (e.g. perks) of employees involved are cut
  • variable pay (e.g. bonus) is decreased

Of the above measures, CEOs tended to prefer the first one: 32% of them have given - or are planning to give - a raise this year to employees earning above the standard minimum wage to avoid a wage tension. Also 32% reported the cancellation of staff recruitment. Almost a quarter (24%) of the surveyed companies are planning to postpone projected investments. 13% of companies chose to decrease variable pay (e.g. bonuses). About one in ten businesses will modify the duties of employees getting a raise, cut employee's benefits, or redirect employees to part-time employment. Job cut was the least common reaction, performed by a meagre 3% of surveyed companies...

 

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Download this file (MBET_July_2018.pdf)MBET July 2018

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | June 2018

IEER quarterly business climate survey results, April 2018

For concluding its Quarterly Business Climate Index survey, IEER asked 400 CEOs about the situation and the outlook of their businesses. The basis used for calculating the Quarterly Business Climate Index and the Quarterly Uncertainty Index was a sample of 300 small and medium-sized enterprises (20-249 employees) and 100 large enterprises (employing 250 people or more). Surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises were evaluated by using our SME Outlook Business Climate Index and SME Outlook Uncertainty Index.

 

According to our survey conducted in April 2018, the level of business confidence in Hungary was slightly higher quarter on quarter. The Quarterly Business Climate Index was up from 37 points in January to 39. The index has never been this high since business climate records began in 2010 (see figure 1). The Quarterly Uncertainty Index was at 28 points, 4 points lower than the level of the previous quarter. Uncertainty Index values suggest that the business situation has been given a more consistent evaluation by domestic companies compared to the previous quarter.

 

If business confidence levels are examined in the small and medium-sized sector only, we can see an other improving tendency: Since January, the SME Outlook Business Climate Index has increased by three points to a record-breaking 38 (see figure 2). The SME Outlook Uncertainty Index is at 34 points, having decreased by one point since January 2018 - this value indicates that small and medium-sized enterprises have been of a slightly more uniform opinion...

 

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Download this file (MBET_June_2018.pdf)MBET June 2018

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