Economic Analysis, Forecasts

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | December 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019: the Quarterly Business Climate Index dropped from 33 points to 26 (see fig. 1).
By sectors, the Quarterly Business Climate Index was the highest among trade companies (+32 points). Companies offering business services (+31 points) rank as second, followed by processing companies (+24 points) and construction companies (+19 points). Quarter-on-quarter, the fall was 30 points in the construction industry, 11 points in the trading industry, 6 points in the processing industry, and 4 points with companies offering business services.
Regarding exports, the lowest (+22 points) Quarterly Business Climate Index value was reached by major exporters, whereas it was +33 points in the group of minor exporters and +27 points for non-exporters. Compared to the previous quarter, the index decreased by 12 points in the group of minor exporters, by 11 points in the group of non-exporters, and by 4 points in the group of major exporters.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index was +31 points in the group of companies with 20-49 employees; 50–99 companies scored +25 points, 100–249 companies scored +31 points, and 250+ companies scored +25 points. A downward tendency was measured all throughout: compared to July, there was a 14 point fall in the 50–99 category, a 7 point fall in the 250+ category, a 6 point fall in the 20-49 category and a 4 point fall in the 100-249 category.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index has ten components, such as:

• current/expected business situation;
• current/expected profitability;
• expected investing activity;
• current stock orders;
• production level in the previous half/expected production level;
• expected changes in employee numbers;
• expected capacity utilisation.

To read the full article, click the attachment below

Mellékletek:
MBET 2019 Dec

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | January 2019

Results of the October 2018 IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey of IEER is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents, now surveyed about their business situation and expectations. The Quarterly Business Climate Index and the Quarterly Uncertainty Index were calculated from the full sample of 300 small and medium-sized enterprises (20-249 employees) and 100 large enterprises (250+ employees). For small and medium-sized enterprises, the SME Outlook Business Climate Index and the SME Outlook Uncertainty Index were calculated.

According to October 2018 records, the level of business confidence in Hungary stayed unchanged compared to the previous quarter: the Quarterly Business Climate Index stagnates compared to the 42 points calculated in July. This score has been the highest since records of Quarterly Business Climate Index surveys began in 2010, not unlike the score measured in July (see figure 1). The Quarterly Uncertainty Index is currently at 30 points, which is 4 points up in comparison with the records taken in the previous quarter. This might mean that the perception of the business situation became less uniform among companies since July.

However, if business confidence is examined separately, the SME Outlook Business Climate Index has been climbing since the drop in July: from 34 points it is now up at 41 points. This has been the highest score in the history of our SME Outlook Business Climate Index, with records starting in 2005 (see figure 2). The SME Outlook Uncertainty Index, now at 36 points, increased by 6 points since July 2018, meaning that the opinion of small and medium-sized enterprises became less uniform...

For the full article, click the Attachment below:

Mellékletek:
MBET Jan 2019

Fókuszban a megyék

Megjelent a Központi Statisztikai Hivatal Fókuszban a megyék – 2018. I-IV. negyedév című online kiadványa, mely a főváros mellett hazánk 19 megyéjének társadalmi-gazdasági helyzetéről ad áttekintést a főbb megállapítások, valamint interaktív grafikonok, térképek, táblázatok alapján.

Indul az MKIK Gazdasági Tájékoztatója

A Magyar Kereskedelmi és Iparkamara (MKIK) fontosnak tartja, hogy a vállalkozások az aktuális gazdasági és társadalmi változásokról és kihívásokról minél hamarabb értesüljenek, és azokra lehetséges megoldási javaslatokat kaphassanak. Ennek érdekében az MKIK Közgazdasági Igazgatósága útjára indítja Gazdasági tájékoztatóját (a továbbiakban: Tájékoztató), amely elsősorban a Központi Statisztikai Hivatal által publikált adatokra épül.

Mellékletek:
Gazdasági Tájékoztató 1.

A GVI 2019. januári negyedéves konjunktúrafelvételének eredményei

Az MKIK GVI negyedéves vállalati konjunktúrafelmérésében 400 cégvezető véleményét kérdezzük a cégük üzleti helyzetéről és kilátásairól. A teljes mintára vonatkozóan, amely 300 kis- és középvállalkozást (20–249 fő között) és 100 nagyvállalkozást (250 fő felett) tartalmaz, a Negyedéves Konjunktúramutatót és a Negyedéves Bizonytalansági Mutatót közöljük. A megkérdezett kis- és középvállalkozások esetében pedig a KKV Körkép Konjunktúramutatót és a KKV Körkép Bizonytalansági Mutatót számítjuk ki. Elemzés eredményei