Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | November 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.
Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The Uncertainty Index was 8 points higher than in April, this time at 44 points. This might mean that the companies' business situation assessment has become less uniform compared to the time the previous study was taken.

The IEER Business Climate Index by company features

The Business Climate Index was the highest for trading companies (+56 points), while for companies in the construction industry it was somewhat lower (49 points). Business service providers and businesses in the processing industry are at 48 and 42 points, respectively. Half-on-half results show that it was the processing industry that experienced the heftiest drop (19 points since April). Corporations in the construction industry, service providers and trading companies all scored lower – by 11 points, 7 points and 3 points, respectively – than in the previous half.

 

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Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_1910_191205.pdf)MBET 2019 Nov

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | December 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019: the Quarterly Business Climate Index dropped from 33 points to 26 (see fig. 1).
By sectors, the Quarterly Business Climate Index was the highest among trade companies (+32 points). Companies offering business services (+31 points) rank as second, followed by processing companies (+24 points) and construction companies (+19 points). Quarter-on-quarter, the fall was 30 points in the construction industry, 11 points in the trading industry, 6 points in the processing industry, and 4 points with companies offering business services.
Regarding exports, the lowest (+22 points) Quarterly Business Climate Index value was reached by major exporters, whereas it was +33 points in the group of minor exporters and +27 points for non-exporters. Compared to the previous quarter, the index decreased by 12 points in the group of minor exporters, by 11 points in the group of non-exporters, and by 4 points in the group of major exporters.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index was +31 points in the group of companies with 20-49 employees; 50–99 companies scored +25 points, 100–249 companies scored +31 points, and 250+ companies scored +25 points. A downward tendency was measured all throughout: compared to July, there was a 14 point fall in the 50–99 category, a 7 point fall in the 250+ category, a 6 point fall in the 20-49 category and a 4 point fall in the 100-249 category.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index has ten components, such as:

• current/expected business situation;
• current/expected profitability;
• expected investing activity;
• current stock orders;
• production level in the previous half/expected production level;
• expected changes in employee numbers;
• expected capacity utilisation.

 

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Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_1911_191217_dec.pdf)MBET 2019 Dec

Mennyire segítenék elő az alábbi intézkedések azt, hogy az Ön cége megváltozott munkaképességű munkavállalókat alkalmazzon?

Megjelent az MKIK Gazdaság- és Vállalkozáskutató Intézetének havi tájékoztatója.
A tanulmányokat a mellékletekben olvashatják magyar és angol nyelven.

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends November-December 2018

Favourable business climate, continued optimistic expectations - IEER Business Climate Survey findings of October 2018


The latest Business Climate Survey of IEER is based on the answers of 2830 CEO respondents. According to the results, Business Climate Index was at 55 points as of October 2018, which has been the highest since records began in 1998. Trends that had started to improve in the previous half continued. Business climate is still regarded by companies as being very favourable, which can mainly be put down to the fact that expectations about investments in construction and machinery became significantly more optimistic in the previous half year. Uncertainty Index, currently at 37 points, is down two points compared to April 2018 results, meaning that the situation assessment of Hungarian businesses have become more homogeneous in the past two quarters.

 

IEER Business Climate Index by company features


The Business Climate Index was the highest for construction companies (+65 points), followed by industrial firms and companies specialising in commerce (61 and 60 points, respectably). Companies offering business services are a distant fourth (40 points). Half-on-half figures show that only construction and commercial companies saw a significant increase – compared to April, their indicator jumped 10 points...

 

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Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_November_December_2018.pdf)MBET Nov-Dec 2018

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends September 2018

Hungarian companies as suppliers


This analysis is based on the July 2018 wave of IEER's Quarterly Business Climate Survey, in which 400 CEOs were involved. The structure of the sample is the same each quarter: it contains 300 small and medium-sized enterprises (20-249 employees) and 100 large enterprises (250+
employees). Economic output and sectors are both representative. The survey mainly concerns the business situation and short-term business expectations of enterprises. In this wave, the popularity of supplier activity was also surveyed.

 

Findings on how widespread supplier activity was in Hungary are presented in Figure 1. According to them, 16% of the surveyed 400 companies were involved in supplying to other companies in 2017. Of all the background variables examined, the only one whose correlation to supplying activity had statistically significance was exports. It may be safe to conclude that more export-oriented companies are also more liable to act as suppliers. (Only 11% of non-exporting companies act as suppliers, while mainly exporters that take over 50% of their annual revenues from exports are more than twice as liable, their proportion as suppliers being 26%.)..

 

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Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_September_2018.pdf)MBET Sept 2018

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