Economic Analysis, Forecasts

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends I March 2020

Hungarian businesses' perceptions concerning the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic

The Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (HCCI) surveyed Hungarian companies about the economic effects of the global pandemic. In the first wave, there were 16340 respondents answering by 23rd March, 2020. Incoming answers were analysed by HCCI's Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research. In the survey the overwhelming majority of businesses (83%) reported an unfavourable business situation. This is particularly true for companies specialising in accommodation/catering services, trade and delivery/logistics – these branches being the most vulnerable to the pandemic. Furthermore, business have become much more pessimistic since mid-March. Since then, the number of companies deeming their situation as most unfavourable increased by almost twofold (from 37 to 67 per cent). Almost a half (41 per cent) of the surveyed companies experienced serious hindering issues that were linked to the spread of the virus.

This analysis features three main aspects: companies' expectations about the business situation in the future, their perception of the current situation, and crisis management options. The vast majority of respondents (83 per cent) expects a deterioration in their business outlook although the adverse effects are currently experienced by somewhat less than a half of them. Yet the overwhelming majority of respondents (about 83%) have no emergency scenario to manage the crisis. Among those who do have crisis management strategies the most popular solution is working from home (i. e. home office): almost a third of such companies would switch to home office when needed.

The impact of the pandemic on companies' business situations

The majority (83%) of respondents thinks that their company will have to grapple with an unfavourable business situation in the upcoming six months, while 50% expects a particularly gloomy business situation in the next half. 13 per cent believes that their situation will not change, and only 5 per cent expects a boost.
As for company size, SMEs employing 10-49 people see their futures the darkest. The rate of SMEs that expect unfavourable or very poor future business situations is quite high (86%) compared to others. Looking at industries we find that these expectations are the most common among companies specialising in accommodation and catering services (93 percent), trade (86 per cent), delivery and logistics (86 per cent) and miscellaneous services (86 per cent), as shown in Figure 1.

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Mellékletek:
MBET_March

Gazdasági Havi Tájékoztató - 2020. február

Megjelent az MKIK Gazdaság- és Vállalkozáskutató Intézetének havi tájékoztatója.
A tanulmányokat a mellékletekben olvashatják magyar és angol nyelven.

Mellékletek:
GHT 2020. február
MBET February 2020

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends I January 2020

Macroeconomic trends in Hungary
Hungarian economic tendencies will be presented in the article below via an overview of the most important macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, gross wages, investments, industrial production and foreign trade, from directly after the crisis to 2019.

In 2009 the Hungarian economy found itself in a remarkably deep crisis. The recession was almost as severe as the transformational crisis (1991-1995) caused by the regime shift. The crisis resulted in plummeting economic performance - GDP fell 6.5% by the end of the year 2009. This downward tendency slowed down in the first half of 2010, turning into growth in mid-2010, and in the second half of the same year the growth rate was back at the pre-crisis level. Then in 2011, owing to the crisis of the Eurozone, the international economic environment became quite unfavourable again.

The Hungarian economy relapsed in 2012, with GDP dropping by 1.5%. Finally, recovery came in 2013 with a growth rate of 2.2%, and the next year saw a 4.1% growth year-on-year. There was a mild slowdown in 2015 and 2016 with growth rates of 3.5% and 2.2% respectively, followed by a surge to 4.1% in 2017. 2018 was a top year when GDP growth shot up to 5.1%. The first three quarters of 2019 saw similar growth rates. In the first two quarters, economy grew by 5.2%, and in the third quarter the rate was somewhat lower at 4.8% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Recovery after the crisis was much slower in Hungary than in its number one target country for exports, Germany. On all accounts, the Hungarian crisis was much deeper than the one Germany had to recover from. Furthermore, recovery in Hungary could only start later than in Germany. Although recession affected the two economies at an equal strength and at an equal speed, in the first quarter after the turning point in 2009 the German economy could recover remarkably quickly. By early 2011 the German economy had been back at pre-crisis levels and has grown almost unintermittently ever since. Hungary, on the other hand, had to deal with a prolonged recession, only reaching pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2014. The growth rate difference between the two economies levelled out between the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2017, and in 2018 the Hungarian growth rate spiked up and overtook that of Germany. In 2019 the Hungarian growth rate difference was 6-7% over Germany.

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Mellékletek:
MBET_20201

Gazdasági Havi Tájékoztató - 2020. január

Megjelent az MKIK Gazdaság- és Vállalkozáskutató Intézetének havi tájékoztatója.
A tanulmányokat a mellékletekben olvashatják magyar és angol nyelven.

Mellékletek:
GHT 2020 január
MBET January 2020

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | July 2019

Corporate reactions to the raise of the minimum wage/guaranteed minimum salary of qualified staff

Our brief analysis examines the nine potential measures that can be reactions to the affects of the January 20191 raise of the minimum wage/guaranteed minimum salary for qualified staff. CEOs were asked to fill in the form below.

The raise of the minimum wage to HUF 149,000 and the guaranteed minimum salary of qualified staff to HUF 195,000 have resulted/will result in the following measures at your company in 2019:

wages of those earning above the minimum wage are also increased to avoid wage pressure
planned staff recruitment is cancelled
redundancies are made
projected investments are postponed
employees entitled for a raise are given new duties
employees entitled for a raise are reorganised to do part-time jobs
other benefits (e.g. perks) of employees involved are cut
variable pay (e.g. bonus) is decreased
prices are increased

Of the above measures, CEOs generally preferred to increase prices: More than one third (38%) of them have opted for that solution or responded to increase prices later this year. 32% of respondents reported the cancellation of planned staff recruitment. 30% of CEOs have given - or are planning to give - a raise this year to employees earning above the standard minimum wage in order to avoid a wage pressure. One quarter (25%) of the surveyed companies are planning to postpone projected investments. 15% and 13% of companies respectively chose to decrease fringe benefits and variable pay (e.g. bonuses). About one in ten businesses (12%) will redirect employees to part-time employment.or modify the duties of those eligible for a raise (11%). Redundancy was the least common reaction, performed by only 5% of surveyed companies.

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