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Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | October 2019

Late payment and circular debt in Hungarian business life

This analysis by IEER concerns the experience of Hungarian businesses with late payment and circular debt. The results are based on IEER's July 2019 Quarterly Business Climate Survey, which involved 404 domestic respondents. Based on the answers, 68,6% of businesses had at least one partner that paid late in the first half of 2019, and 34% of respondents made late payments themselves to their suppliers in the examined period. The issue of late payment most often hits large companies (with more than 250 employees) and industrywise construction and providers of other business services are the most affected. All-in-all it can be inferred that the after the favourable period last year, the trends in having more business partner who pay late is starting to creep back to its prior 2018 level. By the same token, proportion of their income arriving late has become threefold, compared to the last period measured. However, the number of companies that failed to pay in time to their suppliers at least once due to the late payment of their customers basically remained unchanged since July 2018.

In the course of IEER's July 2019 Quarterly Business Climate Survey, 404 domestic respondents were surveyed about late payment and circular debt.
68,6% of the surveyed companies had at least one business partner that paid late multiple times in the first half of 2019. As it could be observed in Figure 1, the rate of the same companies was 55% in the second half of 2018 and 63% one and the half year before, in 2018 January meaning that the amelioration of the previous period was not here to stay and the ratio is resembling more to its levels prior 2018 July. The proportion of companies with more than half of their partners paying late also increased considerably. In July 2019, 10% of companies were such, whereas the same ratio was much lower before: 2% and 3% in July 2018, and January 2018, respectively.

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Mellékletek:
MBET 2019 Oct

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | November 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.
Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The Uncertainty Index was 8 points higher than in April, this time at 44 points. This might mean that the companies' business situation assessment has become less uniform compared to the time the previous study was taken.

The IEER Business Climate Index by company features

The Business Climate Index was the highest for trading companies (+56 points), while for companies in the construction industry it was somewhat lower (49 points). Business service providers and businesses in the processing industry are at 48 and 42 points, respectively. Half-on-half results show that it was the processing industry that experienced the heftiest drop (19 points since April). Corporations in the construction industry, service providers and trading companies all scored lower – by 11 points, 7 points and 3 points, respectively – than in the previous half.

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Mellékletek:
MBET 2019 Nov

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | December 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019: the Quarterly Business Climate Index dropped from 33 points to 26 (see fig. 1).
By sectors, the Quarterly Business Climate Index was the highest among trade companies (+32 points). Companies offering business services (+31 points) rank as second, followed by processing companies (+24 points) and construction companies (+19 points). Quarter-on-quarter, the fall was 30 points in the construction industry, 11 points in the trading industry, 6 points in the processing industry, and 4 points with companies offering business services.
Regarding exports, the lowest (+22 points) Quarterly Business Climate Index value was reached by major exporters, whereas it was +33 points in the group of minor exporters and +27 points for non-exporters. Compared to the previous quarter, the index decreased by 12 points in the group of minor exporters, by 11 points in the group of non-exporters, and by 4 points in the group of major exporters.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index was +31 points in the group of companies with 20-49 employees; 50–99 companies scored +25 points, 100–249 companies scored +31 points, and 250+ companies scored +25 points. A downward tendency was measured all throughout: compared to July, there was a 14 point fall in the 50–99 category, a 7 point fall in the 250+ category, a 6 point fall in the 20-49 category and a 4 point fall in the 100-249 category.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index has ten components, such as:

• current/expected business situation;
• current/expected profitability;
• expected investing activity;
• current stock orders;
• production level in the previous half/expected production level;
• expected changes in employee numbers;
• expected capacity utilisation.

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Mellékletek:
MBET 2019 Dec

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