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Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | November 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The latest Business Climate Survey taken by IEER is based on the answers of 2268 CEO respondents. According to the results, the Business Climate Index dropped back to 46 points in October 2019 from 58 points measured in April. This has been the lowest score since October 2015.
Businesses thus seem to judge the business climate as being far less favourable than before, meaning that the improving tendency starting in October 2017 broke. The reason behind this may be that expectations concerning the future business situation, investments and orders all became more pessimistic in the previous half. It was the business situation outlook that dropped back the most significantly.

The Uncertainty Index was 8 points higher than in April, this time at 44 points. This might mean that the companies' business situation assessment has become less uniform compared to the time the previous study was taken.

The IEER Business Climate Index by company features

The Business Climate Index was the highest for trading companies (+56 points), while for companies in the construction industry it was somewhat lower (49 points). Business service providers and businesses in the processing industry are at 48 and 42 points, respectively. Half-on-half results show that it was the processing industry that experienced the heftiest drop (19 points since April). Corporations in the construction industry, service providers and trading companies all scored lower – by 11 points, 7 points and 3 points, respectively – than in the previous half.

 

You can read the full article in the attachment below

Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_1910_191205.pdf)MBET 2019 Nov

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends | December 2019

Findings of the IEER Business Climate Survey taken in October 2019: Business situation worsening, expectations more pessimistic

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019

The Quarterly Business Climate Survey taken by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) of the Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce is based on the answers of 400 CEO respondents about their business situation and expectations. According to October 2019 results, business climate deteriorated compared to July 2019: the Quarterly Business Climate Index dropped from 33 points to 26 (see fig. 1).
By sectors, the Quarterly Business Climate Index was the highest among trade companies (+32 points). Companies offering business services (+31 points) rank as second, followed by processing companies (+24 points) and construction companies (+19 points). Quarter-on-quarter, the fall was 30 points in the construction industry, 11 points in the trading industry, 6 points in the processing industry, and 4 points with companies offering business services.
Regarding exports, the lowest (+22 points) Quarterly Business Climate Index value was reached by major exporters, whereas it was +33 points in the group of minor exporters and +27 points for non-exporters. Compared to the previous quarter, the index decreased by 12 points in the group of minor exporters, by 11 points in the group of non-exporters, and by 4 points in the group of major exporters.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index was +31 points in the group of companies with 20-49 employees; 50–99 companies scored +25 points, 100–249 companies scored +31 points, and 250+ companies scored +25 points. A downward tendency was measured all throughout: compared to July, there was a 14 point fall in the 50–99 category, a 7 point fall in the 250+ category, a 6 point fall in the 20-49 category and a 4 point fall in the 100-249 category.
The Quarterly Business Climate Index has ten components, such as:

• current/expected business situation;
• current/expected profitability;
• expected investing activity;
• current stock orders;
• production level in the previous half/expected production level;
• expected changes in employee numbers;
• expected capacity utilisation.

 

To read the full article, click the attachment below

 

Mellékletek:
Download this file (MBET_1911_191217_dec.pdf)MBET 2019 Dec

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